Market Update Preview
Going back to mid-September — once the dust settled from the FOMC decision — we've been structurally bullish, and that's worked out well. We bounced right around 7,500, climbed through a little volatility here and there, and printed fresh new highs on the S&P earlier this week. We timed the bottom of that pre-Fed weakness about as well as you can, and we've collected a nice rally since.
This week I make the case that there's enough in the tank for one more stretch higher — but that we're approaching a level that becomes a thick ceiling for a while, and the first real window for a short-term pause since September is now opening. I lay out the exact level, the reason I keep coming back to it (including a dealer-positioning tool I don't normally reference), the pullback range I'd expect, the support levels underneath, and why bonds should get a breather at the same time.
Also this week, a Discord question on gold: why it just took a leg down, the three framework reasons behind it, which money printer actually moves gold (the data is clear on this), and how I'm thinking about exposure from here — including the scenario where gold gets a tremendous leg higher and the one where it peters out. Plus the Flow Monitor's new warning level, what's happening in bank credit, and the 2027 window that keeps getting pushed out. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a full summary of the Market Update Video for 10/07/2026, click here to watch the video update)
