Market Update Preview
It's been a week and a half since the Fed hike, and equities have had plenty of time to digest it — a strong bullish rally into near all-time highs (the Nasdaq actually printed a new one), a bit of a sell-off to start this week, and now a recovery with a rally into the close. On the equity side, the market has read what the Fed said quite bullishly, with very little turmoil showing up in price.
Bonds are a different story. Yields continue to soar, bonds continue to crash, and a good question came up in the Discord: this looks inorganic — is something else happening under the hood? I spend real time on that this week. My read is that the bond market has just figured out something about this Fed's priorities, and the resulting dynamic looks a lot like what happened to another major economy in the summer of 2023. I walk through the feedback loop, why the "rising yields will break something" crowd is repeating the yield-curve-inversion mistake, and the very short list of things that could actually stop this from spiraling — none of which are on the table right now. That leads to a concrete portfolio conclusion about what belongs in the non-equity part of your book.
I lay out the level I think becomes a ceiling for a while, the credit-side data that's quietly setting up the next leg, and why next Friday's jobs print matters far more for bonds than for stocks. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a full summary of the Market Update Video for 09/25/2026, click here to watch the video update)
