Follow the flows.
We turn fiscal flows, Federal Reserve and Treasury operations, and balance-sheet mechanics into research and tools you can act on.
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Circulation
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Three kinds of work, one framework
Market updates
Reads on Treasury statements, tax receipts, refunding, and what the flows imply for positioning. At least once a week.
Deep dives & strategy
Full research pieces behind the models — position-level detail, scenario work, and the spreadsheets we actually use.
Dashboards & tools
Live views of the plumbing: Treasury flows, tax receipts, margin debt, and the DeepMinsky market simulation.
Recent work
10/07/2026 Market Update: New Highs and What's going on with Gold
Market Update Preview Going back to mid-September — once the dust settled from the FOMC decision — we've been structurally bullish, and that's worked Members09/25/2026 Market Update: Stocks Digested the Hike. Bonds Didn't. Here's What the Bond Market Just Figured Out.
Market Update Preview It's been a week and a half since the Fed hike, and equities have had plenty of time to digest it MembersAlphaShift Note - 9/22/2026
Professional09/16/2026 Market Update: The Fed Hiked. Here's Why It Feeds the Cycle Instead of Ending It.
Market Update Preview Fed Day delivered a hike. Heading in, this was probably the most uncertain rate decision we've had in many years — exactly MembersMacro Update: The cycle is intact, the model is long, and for the next few weeks we are hedging it with cash
Professional09/07/2026 Market Update: The September Surprise — Flows Just Changed the Setup
Market Update Preview For the past four or five weeks, the drive-home point here has been sideways action: the big early-August run played out most of Members“We trade the plumbing, not the politics.”
Flows before surveys
Fiscal flows and Federal Reserve and Treasury operations print daily and lead the cycle. We read them before the soft data catches up.
Balance-sheet mechanics
Who is issuing, who has to absorb it, and what that does to reserves, rates, and risk appetite. Operations, not opinions.
No politics
Our framework is descriptive, not ideological. We don’t care what the deficit should be — only what it is, and where it lands.
“25 years ago I would have been looking to work for you!”
Dashboards that watch the plumbing for you
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