Follow the flows.
We turn fiscal flows, Federal Reserve and Treasury operations, and balance-sheet mechanics into research and tools you can act on.
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Circulation
- 896 members
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Three kinds of work, one framework
Market updates
Reads on Treasury statements, tax receipts, refunding, and what the flows imply for positioning. At least once a week.
Deep dives & strategy
Full research pieces behind the models — position-level detail, scenario work, and the spreadsheets we actually use.
Dashboards & tools
Live views of the plumbing: Treasury flows, tax receipts, margin debt, and the DeepMinsky market simulation.
Recent work
08/27/2026 Market Update: The Bessent Buyback Mirage, and Why Mid-September Is the Brittle Zone
The Bessent buyback treated as a mirage: the TGA mechanics, the one lever that would actually bring rates down, and why nobody in Washington will pull it. Also flagged — a mid-September brittle zone, and a rare disagreement with DeepMMT. MembersAddressing the WSJ's Latest MMT Hit Piece
The WSJ blames MMT for the pandemic inflation. Their tax arithmetic is right, their description of MMT isn't, and their causal chain runs backwards. Free08/18/2026 Market Update: Introducing the Flow Monitor, and Why September Is the Date I'm Circling
The Flow Monitor debuts: fiscal flows, credit, and the lag structure condensed into one visual that asks whether the market is priced to the dollars already created. Also: new highs, the case that overpriced alone doesn't break a market, and a circled September window. MembersTwo Centuries of Warning About the National Debt
A chronological gallery of 240 years of debt-doom warnings as they were actually printed and broadcast — every quotation verified against primary sources, placed on the debt curve itself. Free08/09/2026 Market Update: The Rally Delivered. Now Comes the Harder Question.
A run to nearly 7,800 out of the gate in August shifts the question from whether the rally holds to when it gets dangerous; also here, a years-long split between credit creation and tax receipts, and why a too-calm VIX is its own warning. Members07/30/2026 Market Update: The Inflection Point, Reading the New Fed, and Why You Can't Front-Run Flows
A 1,000-point Dow drop after Warsh's press conference, mostly recovered a session later. Two FOMC meetings into the new Fed, the update reads the market's response function, a July 24 shift in the flow picture, and why no one seems to front-run flows. Members“We trade the plumbing, not the politics.”
Flows before surveys
Fiscal flows and Federal Reserve and Treasury operations print daily and lead the cycle. We read them before the soft data catches up.
Balance-sheet mechanics
Who is issuing, who has to absorb it, and what that does to reserves, rates, and risk appetite. Operations, not opinions.
No politics
Our framework is descriptive, not ideological. We don’t care what the deficit should be — only what it is, and where it lands.
“25 years ago I would have been looking to work for you!”
Dashboards that watch the plumbing for you
Two ways in
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