Market Update Preview
This is probably one of the more important updates of the year, because of how the week finished. Thursday and Friday were very bearish days, driven largely by the AI hyperscaler trade coming apart — that segment is down almost 10% from its highs just a couple of weeks ago, in a buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news unwind as Anthropic approaches its IPO and some of the revenue hopes aren't fully materializing. We've landed right at the support line I've been pointing to since September.
So the question is the one everyone's asking: is this the beginning of the end, or the necessary pause every major bull run goes through — especially one with a credit-bubble flavor to it? I think it's the latter, and I make that argument the way we always do here: by looking at where the flows are and how they fit the broader picture. I lay out the exact level that's acting as the line in the sand, the next support below it if that fails, the two specific things that could get us there, and why the sector rotation under the surface tells a very different story than the headlines.
Also this week: a labor-market signal that's been building since summer and why Friday's jobs data could be the moment it shows up — with real consequences for the Fed and for the bounce in bonds. Plus the one sentiment model that just flipped to a full buy, the one indicator I'd call a genuine concern, and a dealer-positioning read that says this market isn't pinned here. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a full summary of the Market Update Video for 11/01/2026, click here to watch the video update)
