Market Update Preview
We've gotten a little of everything since the last update — a pre-holiday pullback, a rebound, and fresh Iran tensions over the weekend that nudged oil higher. But the S&P is still range-bound in its consolidation, and my base case is unchanged: sideways for another week or few, then a breakout to new highs into late July or the August/September window.
The more interesting story is fiscal. Flows are re-accelerating, and the mid-July low is bottoming out meaningfully higher than April's — a break from the multi-year pattern. I dig into whether this is just a temporary boost from the One Big Beautiful Bill or a genuine sea change that extends this cycle's runway well into 2027. I also flag a rates breakout brewing in the background that could destabilize equities in the short run (and why it's actually supportive longer term), the one tool giving me pause on the next leg, and how a slowing-but-not-collapsing credit cycle fits when fiscal is this dominant. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a summary of the Market Update Video for 07/12/2026, click here to watch the video update)