Update Preview
A big jobs miss (57k vs. 129k expected) shook markets yesterday, but price stabilized right back to where it started and the bigger picture hasn't changed. Flows are re-accelerating strongly into July, and everything in our toolkit still points to a sideways grind before a breakout into August.
This week I spend some time on a macro topic I think is more important than ever: the dollar, and why its direction quietly matters for your returns even when the index looks flat. I walk through the actual math of how a falling dollar affects a US portfolio versus a hedged international one and why I've been positioning for dollar weakness since early 2025.
On markets, there's one signal flashing caution amid an otherwise constructive setup, and I explain why I read it as noise rather than a warning. Plus: the strongest flow re-acceleration we've seen in a while, what it means for the cycle's runway, and the volatility pattern I'm watching as we head toward September. Full breakdown below.
(Note: Below is a summary of the Market Update Video for 07/03/2026, click here to watch the video update)