(Note: Below is a summary of the Market Update Video for 03/29/2026, click here to watch the video update)
Update Preview
Last week finally brought the kind of selling I had been warning about for months. Since the end of 2025, the core argument has been that markets were overpriced relative to flows, and we’re now seeing that mismatch resolve in a much more visible way. The big question now is not whether the selloff was justified — I think it clearly was — but whether this is simply the final shakeout before the next leg higher, or the beginning of something more serious.
In this update, I break down why I still do not think the broader business cycle is over yet, but also why the risks have clearly risen over the last month. Oil, rates, supply chains, and geopolitical uncertainty are all now feeding into the market at the same time. We are getting closer to a buy signal, but in my view, we are not quite there yet. Below, I’ll walk through the longer-term setup, what has changed, and the specific signals I’m watching before I’d feel comfortable calling this a real buying opportunity.